interesting read, thanks for putting this together! i quite like the visual analogy of the ladder illustrating those tipping points. beyond that i wonder tbh. i suspect it comes down to the level at which you do the analysis. individuals surely avoid and adapt etc. societies don’t seem to. have we ever avoided what’s mostly referred to as ‘progress’ even though we could in many cases have probably foreseen at least some of the negative consequences that come along with it? i can’t think of anything, sadly. this is a long, sobering deep dive into the subject. i hope you find it similarly thought-provoking: https://consilienceproject.org/development-in-progress/
Thanks - and a good thought provoking article! I think what is particularly interesting is when the transition comes from the consequences of immature ideas being absorbed within a large system, to the consequences fundamentally changing the system ...
There's a certain irony in two of the technologies you name as breakthroughs for expanding human potential - steam power and synthetic fertilisers - have been major contributors to some of the dangerous climatic and environmental tipping points we now face.
Absolutely - and an intentional irony! In the earlier part of the of the lecture that set things up I develop the argument that every challenge we currently face is the result of a past innovation -- and one of the questions around advanced technology transitions is whether we can continue to innovate our way out of the problems we create faster than we create them!
I think this is fascinating and certainly an innovative way to think about the future. Whether it is an exact analogy to our situation is not the point; it gets us to think in new ways. I would apply this same reasoning to the problem of nuclear weapons, which is the other threat to our civilization. We were lucky after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as the world recoiled from the horror of the bombing and so far nations have refrained from using their nuclear weapons. That could change any moment, however - the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is 90 seconds to midnight - and once that happens there is no turning back. Thank you Andrew Maynard for this.
Thanks Alan - and I agree, while it's always dangerous to push an analogy too far, I think this one works well for stimulating thinking about the future
This is really thought provoking and well done.
Thanks Michael!
interesting read, thanks for putting this together! i quite like the visual analogy of the ladder illustrating those tipping points. beyond that i wonder tbh. i suspect it comes down to the level at which you do the analysis. individuals surely avoid and adapt etc. societies don’t seem to. have we ever avoided what’s mostly referred to as ‘progress’ even though we could in many cases have probably foreseen at least some of the negative consequences that come along with it? i can’t think of anything, sadly. this is a long, sobering deep dive into the subject. i hope you find it similarly thought-provoking: https://consilienceproject.org/development-in-progress/
Thanks - and a good thought provoking article! I think what is particularly interesting is when the transition comes from the consequences of immature ideas being absorbed within a large system, to the consequences fundamentally changing the system ...
There's a certain irony in two of the technologies you name as breakthroughs for expanding human potential - steam power and synthetic fertilisers - have been major contributors to some of the dangerous climatic and environmental tipping points we now face.
Absolutely - and an intentional irony! In the earlier part of the of the lecture that set things up I develop the argument that every challenge we currently face is the result of a past innovation -- and one of the questions around advanced technology transitions is whether we can continue to innovate our way out of the problems we create faster than we create them!
That's a post for another day though :)
Thanks for expanding that point! Looking forward to reading the post.
I think this is fascinating and certainly an innovative way to think about the future. Whether it is an exact analogy to our situation is not the point; it gets us to think in new ways. I would apply this same reasoning to the problem of nuclear weapons, which is the other threat to our civilization. We were lucky after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as the world recoiled from the horror of the bombing and so far nations have refrained from using their nuclear weapons. That could change any moment, however - the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is 90 seconds to midnight - and once that happens there is no turning back. Thank you Andrew Maynard for this.
Thanks Alan - and I agree, while it's always dangerous to push an analogy too far, I think this one works well for stimulating thinking about the future