We need to develop a better understanding of advanced technology transitions if we're to realize the social and economic benefits of transformative tech like AI
I could not agree more. We are at a unique point in history where the prospect of AI could transform all of human society, at a time when our total sum ability to innovate might actually be waning due to demographics, outmoded institutions, and falling research productivity.
As I wrote: "The evidence is wide-ranging: The cost of developing new pharmaceuticals now doubles every nine years, it takes 18 times as many engineers to fulfill one cycle of Moore’s Law than it did in 1971, and agriculture research productivity for seed yields is declining by about 5 percent per year. Studies analyzing millions of published scientific papers and patents have also come to the conclusion that they are becoming less and less disruptive over time."
I could not agree more. We are at a unique point in history where the prospect of AI could transform all of human society, at a time when our total sum ability to innovate might actually be waning due to demographics, outmoded institutions, and falling research productivity.
As I wrote: "The evidence is wide-ranging: The cost of developing new pharmaceuticals now doubles every nine years, it takes 18 times as many engineers to fulfill one cycle of Moore’s Law than it did in 1971, and agriculture research productivity for seed yields is declining by about 5 percent per year. Studies analyzing millions of published scientific papers and patents have also come to the conclusion that they are becoming less and less disruptive over time."
https://www.lianeon.org/p/the-innovation-red-queens-race