Well said. Education faces a critical "wait calculation" (also thoughtfully discussed here: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/the-lazy-tyranny-of-the-wait-calculation by Ethan Mollick).

This is a moment for education, experimentation, and collective reflection and discussion. I completely agree that jumping into any single product (or even framework) at this moment is likely to be suboptimal. But one can derive their own conclusions, using their own estimates and biases, pretty effectively with a combination of strategic foresight and framing technology investments through the lens of real options.

Expand full comment

Great link to Ethan's article, and wishing I'd linked to this now :)

The great paradox of the wait calculation is that, certainly in the the original scenario, waiting prevents the sequence of innovation and failure that ultimately lead to success ... which I think nicely underlines the need for experimentation and exploration even though there'll be vastly better tech in the future (because of this)

Expand full comment